It is time for the Madness!!
It’s that time of year again. It is time for the mayhem that is March Madness. Which number 1 seeds will make it all the way to the final 4? Which lower seeds will be that next Cinderella Story? We have all the seeding broken down for you in this installment of the, NCAA Bracketology 2022.
Gonzaga*, Arizona, Baylor, and Auburn
This line has remained unchanged from my last projection. Gonzaga locked up the number one overall seed with their win last night over St. Mary’s.
Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, and Purdue (+1)
Purdue moved back up to the two line despite a season sweep at the hands of Wisconsin. The Badgers terrible loss to Wisconsin moved them down. If Wisconsin has a strong showing at the Big Ten Tournament they are likely to move back ahead of the Boilermakers.
Wisconsin (-1), Tennessee, Villanova, Texas Tech
The Wisconsin/Purdue change is the only one on this line as well. Villanova also has a chance to move two line if they win the Big East Tournament and Wisconsin and Purdue do not win the Big Ten Tournament. A poor showing in the ACC Tournament could also have Duke fall to the three line.
Providence, UCLA, Illinois, Arkansas (+1)
I just cannot decide what to do with Houston. The Cougars have strong metrics but their resume is terrible. They do not have a single win over a team likely to be in the NCAA Tournament besides Bryant who is ranked 184th by Kenpom. Houston’s best win is a neutral court victory over Oklahoma State, so I had to move them down to a five seed. They need to win the AAC Tournament to be back into consideration for a four seed.
Houston (-1), UConn, St. Mary’s, Texas
St. Mary’s has ended their regular season. A lot of teams around them could pass the Gaels with a strong showing, but they are a five seed for now.
Iowa, Alabama, Colorado State, and Murray State*
Murray State has punched their ticket to the big dance. The Racers are listed as a seven seed by most other bracketologist but with only two losses I have Murray State higher. They lack big time wins but only a neutral court loss to East Tennessee State keeps them from being even higher.
Ohio State, LSU, Boise State, North Carolina (+2)
Is this an overreaction to the Tar Heels victory over Duke? Maybe, but UNC only has one bad loss to Pittsburgh. The rest of the team below the Tar Heels have flaws as well. They need to make the ACC Tournament finals to stay on the seven line, but they are here for now.
Iowa State, Seton Hall, TCU, and USC (-1)
The Trojans keep sliding down my rankings. The record, at 25-6 is impressive, but a neutral court victory over San Diego State and a home win over UCLA are the only wins they have over tournament teams.
Michigan State, Marquette, San Diego State, and San Francisco (+1)
The neutral court victory over BYU pushed San Francisco up a line. San Diego State can move up at least one line with a Mountain West Tournament victory, which should play out to be one of the best conference tournaments of the season.
Creighton, Davidson (-2), Loyola-Chicago* (+2), Michigan (+1)
This line has changed a lot since last week. Davidson has played their way backwards onto the bubble. Loyola-Chicago got rid of their bubble questions by defeating Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. Davidson doesn’t need to win the A-10 Tournament, but they cannot afford a bad loss.
Miami, Memphis (+1), Notre Dame (-1), Rutgers
Memphis’ season sweep of Houston pushed them farther up the seed line. The Tigers should be good as long as they win one game in the AAC Tournament. The Irish are sweating and need to get a win in their tournament or they will likely be headed to the NIT.
Wake Forest, North Texas (-2)/Wyoming, Indiana/Xavier (-2), and South Dakota State*
South Dakota State has punched their ticket and will give some five seed nightmares before their first round matchup. North Texas and Wyoming have both struggled down the stretch and do not have to win their conference tournaments but likely need to at least get to their conference championship game. Xavier must win today in the Big East Tournament.
Iona, Vermont, Chattanooga*, and New Mexico State
Chattanooga made the tournament with the most exciting March buzzer beater thus far. All three of these teams will be common upset picks.
Toledo, Princeton, Long Beach State, Longwood*
Longwood has punched their first ever ticket to March Madness.
Delaware*, Montana State, Colgate, Jacksonville St*
Delaware defeated UNC-Wilmington in the Colonial Athletic Association Championship to end the Seahawks incredible turnaround. Jacksonville State made the tournament in bizarre fashion when Bellarmine defeated Jacksonville and is ineligible to play in the NCAA Tournament.
Wright St*, Texas Southern, Nicholls St., Norfolk State, Georgia St*, Bryant*
Wright State, Georgia State and Bryant all punched their tickets last night. Bryant completely dominated Wagner from start to finish in impressive fashion.
You can check out our ACC Tournament Predictor here.
- First Four Out: VCU, SMU, Dayton, Oklahoma
- Next Four Out: Florida, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, UAB
|16. Wright St.*/Texas Southern|
|9. San Diego St.|
|13. New Mexico State|
|San Diego, CA|
|5. St. Mary’s|
|3. Texas Tech|
|San Diego, CA|
|6. Colorado St.|
|7. North Carolina|
|Fort Worth, TX|
|16. Norfolk State|
|Fort Worth, TX|
|8. Seton Hall|
|9. San Francisco|
|12. South Dakota State|
|14. Long Beach St.|
|16. Georgia St.|
|12. Wyoming/North Texas|
|11. Notre Dame|
|7. Ohio State|
|15. Jacksonville St.|
|16. Nicholls St/Bryant*|
|San Diego, CA|
|8. Iowa State|
|9. Michigan State|
|12. Wake Forest|
|6. Murray State|
|7. Boise State|
|15. Montana State|
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