NCAA Bracketology: Selection Sunday Has Arrived for Men’s Basketball: The best day of the year for bracketologists is here! The one seeds are locked in, but after that there is plenty of room for debate. The only question on the one line is if Illinois did enough to surpass Michigan as the #3 overall seed. I have left the Illini as the number four, but by the slimmest of margins.
The first 2 seeds are easy with Alabama, Ohio State and Iowa. The big question for the committee will be the last two seed. I have it between Houston, Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State and Houston have two bad losses, and Kansas’ road victories are limited. I’m taking Texas as the last two seed as a bit of a surprise.
NCAA Bracketology: Looking at the #3s
The three seeds were easy after you decided the last two seed. Arkansas separated themselves from West Virginia and Creighton for the last three seed. My four seeds were West Virginia, Creighton, Virginia and Purdue. The last four seed is tough. If Villanova was healthy I would have given it to them, but I went Purdue. I could see it going to Villanova, Purdue, Florida State or Tennessee.
The five seeds are Villanova (can’t punish them too much for injuries), Tennessee, Florida State and Colorado. You could argue that the five seeds would be favored over the four seeds. It really is that close between these two lines.
Texas Tech and USC also had arguments for the five seed, but didn’t have enough high quality wins. Missouri finishes the six line for me. While their NET isn’t great, their resume is impressive. I could easily miss this one as the Tigers could be an eight seed as well.
The seven line is dangerous with San Diego State and LSU leading the way. Oregon is a lock for this line, and then another mess. Does Loyola get credited for their top 10 NET. I think so, but this could go Clemson, Wisconsin, North Carolina or UConn. That group falls to the 8 line.
NCAA Bracketology: The #9 Line and Beyond
The nine seed line is St. Bonaventure (I’m higher than most), Georgia Tech (could slide up to 8), Florida and Oklahoma. Oklahoma is tough to seed. Terrible against quad 1 (5-9) and had no quad 2 games. Bizarre resume, committee could slide to an 8 or all the way down to an 11.
10 seeds are VCU, Virginia Tech (another volatile team), Rutgers and Maryland. I feel good on everyone but Virginia Tech. Committee could move them up or down a line. The bubble has shrunk with Georgetown and Oregon State stealing bids.
I have Michigan State and UCLA avoiding the play-in games. Drake vs. Louisville and Syracuse vs. Wichita State in the other game. Louisville has a terrible NET but I think they get in. Syracuse and Wichita State are the tough ones for me. If Cincinnati wins I have the Shockers falling out and UCLA has to play in the play-in game. I took Wichita State over Utah State, as the only bad loss for the Shockers is Cincinnati in the AAC tournament. Utah State has a couple of bad losses and their best win is a sweep over San Diego State, which is good, but not as good as Wichita State’s win over Houston.
- 1 Seeds
Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan and Illinois
- 2 Seeds
Alabama, Ohio State, Iowa and Texas
- 3 Seeds
Houston, Kansas, Oklahoma State and Arkansas
- 4 Seeds
West Virginia, Creighton, Virginia and Purdue
- 5 Seeds
Villanova, Tennessee, Florida State and Colorado
- 6 Seeds
USC, Texas Tech, BYU and Missouri
- 7 Seeds
San Diego State, LSU, Oregon, and Loyola-Chicago*
- 8 Seeds
Wisconsin, North Carolina, Clemson and UConn
- 9 Seeds
St. Bonaventure, Georgia Tech, Florida and Oklahoma
- 10 Seeds
VCU, Virginia Tech, Rutgers and Maryland
- 11 Seeds
Michigan State, UCLA, Drake/Louisville and Syracuse/Wichita State
CONTINGENCY; Wichita State Out with Cincinnati victory in AAC tournament. Georgetown moves to last 11 seed. Cincinnati would become an 13 seed with Colgate moving up to a 12.
- 12 Seeds
Georgetown*, Oregon State*, UC Santa Barbara* and Winthrop*
- 13 Seeds
Colgate*, North Texas*, Abilene Christian* and Liberty*
- 14 Seeds
UNC-Greensboro*. Ohio*, Morehead State* and Eastern Washington*
- 15 Seeds
Grand Canyon*, Cleveland State*, Drexel* and Oral Roberts*
- 16 Seeds
Iona*, Hartford*, Norfolk State*/Mt. St. Mary’s*, Appalachian State*/Texas Southern*
- First Four Out: Utah State, St. Louis Mississippi and St. John’s
- Next Four Out: Colorado State, Memphis, Boise State and Seton Hall